Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Nintendo Switch 2: Analyst Forecasts 4.3 Million US Sales in 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella projects robust sales for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, estimating approximately 4.3 million units sold in the US during 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction draws parallels to the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections and necessitated air-freighting additional consoles to meet demand. The hope is that Nintendo has learned from past supply chain challenges and will avoid a similar shortage with the Switch 2.

Anticipation for the Switch 2 is undeniably high, frequently trending on social media. However, translating this online buzz into actual sales remains a key challenge. The console's success hinges on several critical factors, including launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup.

Piscatella's forecast, shared via social media, anticipates the Switch 2 capturing roughly one-third of the US video game console market in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs like the Steam Deck and ROG Ally). He acknowledges potential supply constraints due to high initial demand, but the extent of Nintendo's production capacity remains unclear. The company may have proactively addressed potential shortages, mirroring their efforts with the original Switch and the PlayStation 5.

While optimistic about the Switch 2's performance, Piscatella still predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its position as the top-selling console in the US. The considerable hype surrounding the Switch 2 is a positive indicator, but the anticipated release of major titles like Grand Theft Auto 6 on the PS5 in 2025 could significantly impact sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success will depend heavily on its hardware capabilities and the quality of its launch titles. A strong showing in both areas could propel it to market leadership.